| By :
David Duffield
While the big odds on offer in early Cups betting may look enticing at first, it's hard enough to tip the winner on raceday when you know the field, form and track conditions. Trying to do that months or even weeks before the race has a huge degree of difficulty.
Pre-post betting is a very risky business as your horse may: Suffer an injury
Horses can suffer from any number of injuries or illnesses that prevent them from even making it to the barriers on the big day. Betting months or even weeks out from the big race is fraught with danger. Not qualify
Many of the horses listed in the pre-post markets are not even qualified for the race. Not be aimed at the race
The horse you're looking to back in the Melbourne Cup may in fact have the Cox Plate or Caulfield Cup as it's primary Spring goal. Travel problems
Most of the overseas horses nominated will not travel at all and those that do may struggle to acclimatise to local conditions. And as a rule the hype on the European horses outweighs their ability to adapt to our style of racing. Unsuitable weather
The Melbourne Cup surface can be anywhere from a bog to quite firm so you need to be very confident that your horse can handle all conditions. Poor barrier draw
Are you happy betting without knowing whether your horse will be starting from barrier 1 or barrier 24? Poor odds
This is probably the biggest issue of all because taking unders in any form of punting is a fast track to the poor house. Look at the pre-post markets and they are normally framed to around 175%, yet on the day of the race you'll be able to shop around and bet into a market as close to 100% as you'll ever find.
To give you an idea of how heavily a 175% market is weighted in the bookies favour, it's the equivalent of taking $1.14 each of two in a two-horse race. Or $1.70 for each runner in a three-horse race.
So even if your early pick makes it to the first Tuesday in November it may actually start at longer odds on the day and you would have been better off waiting. All that risk for a negative return!
By all means have a couple of dollars if you already have a real fancy in the Cup, but save your real betting for raceday.
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