| By :
David Duffield
Over the next few weeks I'm going to take a look at what many consider the golden rules of racing. I'm talking about stuff you hear all the time such as '
- Don't bet in maidens.
- Don't back a horse at odds on.
- Don't back horses dropping back in distance.
- Don't back horses from a wide barrier.
- Don't back horses that have won less than 15% of their races.
- Don't back horses with a big weight rise on last start. I'll take a look at these and other common racing sayings and use cold hard facts to determine whether these hold true today (if in fact they ever did), or whether there is money to be made in being a contrarian. A major ingredient in being a successful punter is identifying form factors that are underbet. By focusing on areas that are undervalued by the punting public it is possible to find value. Today we'll start with an oldie but a goodie..... 'Back the outsider in a small field because small fields can throw up funny results'. You normally hear this immediately after the race, when a commentator says something like "How many times do you see it? Yet again the rank outsider of a small field has got up". But is it actually true? Because in our quest for punting profits it is essential not to take such sayings on face value. Rather we look at the numbers and here they are for 2008 based on TAB prices... Backing the outsider (4th favourite) in a 4 horse field you would have lost 48% on turnover.
In a 5 horse field you would have lost 31% on turnover.
In a 6 horse field you would have lost 60% on turnover.
In a 7 horse field you would have lost 31% on turnover. The results above cover more than 2000 races and backing the outsider resulted in a loss on turnover of at least 31% in each field size. The rank outsider won just 3.5% of the time. On the flip side, here are the numbers if you were to back the favourite in these small fields...
In a 4 horse field you would have lost 6% on turnover.
In a 5 horse field you would have lost 10% on turnover.
In a 6 horse field you would have lost 10% on turnover.
In a 7 horse field you would have lost 9% on turnover. So in 2008 by backing the favourite rather than the outsider in a 4, 5, 6 or 7 horse field you are a minimum of 21% better off. Therefore it's fairly clear that the 'outsider in a small field' myth has been debunked.
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