| By :
David Duffield
Brickies lay bricks and bookies lay favourite's. But bookmakers don't aggressively lay all favourites, rather they identify certain horses who they consider to be a big risk. As a punter you can also adopt this approach to weed out false favourites. After you have done the form, don't just ask yourself will this favourite win? Also ask why won't this favourite win? To do this you should try and identify negatives or weaknesses that could bring the favourite undone. Play the devil's advocate role by identifying factors such as -
• Inexperienced or over-bet jockey or trainer
• Difficult barrier draw at a track or distance where barriers are crucial
• Unproven at the distance or in today's track condition
• Yet to reach peak fitness
• Would have to repeat a peak run to win
• Big weight
• Big class rise
Let's use the example of Weekend Hussler in the Group 1 Emirates Stakes. I think every punter knew the positives about this much-hyped horse, as he had been annihilating his 3 year-old opposition. However on the flipside there was any number of factors against him including -
• He had been beating a very even (some may say questionable) bunch of three year-olds that didn't include the best NSW and Queensland horses.
• The Emirates was to be Weekend Hussler’s first race against seasoned older horses and the step up from 3 year-old company is always a big leap.
• The Emirates run came at the end of his first preparation and every trainer will tell you how hard it is for a horse to progress from maiden to open Group 1 class in one prep.
• Weekend Hussler’s major spring mission had been the Caulfield Guineas (1600) four weeks earlier and he was then dropped back to 1200 last start. The Emirates was just one week later and he was stepping back up to the mile. A horse dropping back in distance is not a huge concern, but when this is followed by a quick and substantial rise in distance it certainly is.
• His jockey had never ridden the horse before.
Once you have considered both the positives and the negatives regarding the favourite you then need to ask probably the most important question of all... Is the horse value at this price? Yes you might be confident it will win and that there aren't any huge negatives to overcome. But you must also firmly believe that it is value at it's current price. If it's a $2 chance you must be confident that it has a better than 50% possibility of winning the race. Going into the Emirates Weekend Hussler had as many negatives as positives, yet he was sent out a short-priced favourite. As we all know now, he was one of the first horses beaten and finished 10th. While he may go on to be a genuine superstar, there weren't many pro punters who took the short odds in the Emirates as the negatives he had to overcome meant that the price available simply wasn't value.
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