| By :
David Duffield
ast week we discussed false favourites and what factors you can use to identify whether a horse deserves to be the public elect. Today we will look at how to identify true favourites, by using the same criteria as last week only this time in reverse -
• Proven jockey and trainer
• Suitable barrier draw
• Won or placed at today's distance and on today's track condition
• At or near peak fitness
• Reasonable weight
• Similar or down in class from recent starts
Let's use Zipping in the 2400m Group 2 Sandown Classic as an example of identifying a true favourite. Jockey
Zipping had Steven Arnold on board who is undoubtedly one of Australia's best staying jockeys. Weight problems are the only reason his name isn't up there as one of Australia's best jockeys. Trainer
His 'new' trainer John Sadler had effectively been his trainer for a long time and Sadler is proven both in Australia and Dubai. With substantial input from Lloyd Williams and to a lesser extent Graeme Rogerson, Sadler had been largely responsible for the horse's fitness and day-to-day well being for a while. Barrier
Barrier 7 in a 2400 race at Sandown isn't a huge factor either way as Zipping gets back in the field. Distance
He has won from 1300 to 2500 and run consecutive fourths in the Melbourne Cup despite some doubts over his two mile ability. Few would argue that 2000-2400 is his best distance. Track condition
With six wins and four minor placings from 18 starts on good tracks, he is well suited to today's track condition. Fitness
A gut-busting Melbourne Cup run can make a horse race flat at it's next start, but the big two mile race was only the fifth start for Zipping this campaign. In the week leading up the Classic, owner Lloyd Williams instructed John Sadler to scratch the horse if there was just one small reason to do so. Weight
This was a huge plus in Zipping's favour, since the Classic is raced under weight-for-age conditions yet he was only really facing a field of handicappers. Had this race been run under handicap conditions Zipping would have been giving a substantial amount of weight to almost all of his rivals. Class
While a lot of the other runners were stepping up in class, Zipping was actually dropping back to Group 2 level following four straight Group 1 starts. He ticked all the boxes you need for a horse to be considered a true favourite, so the final question had to be is Zipping value at the price available? He rated well against a field that lacked depth, he stood out as the class horse of the race and there weren't any strong arguments you could make saying he would not win, so the $2.50 was very good odds.
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