| By :
David Duffield
Part one of this article last week discussed what we as punters could learn from the world's biggest hedge fund. We looked at research, strategy and the mathematics of punting. Here are the remaining lessons that we can apply from the Bridgewater Associates handbook: THE RIGHT MINDSET If you don't mind being wrong on the way to being right, you will learn a lot. A large impediment to punting success is emotional. Ego is the biggest single one, but you can probably get what you want out of betting if you can suspend your ego and take a no-excuses approach to achieving your goals with open-mindedness, determination and courage. You mustn't feel bad about your mistakes because: 1) they are to be expected, 2) they're the first and most essential part of the learning process, and 3) feeling bad about them will prevent you from getting better. Use mistakes as learning and growing experiences because the first step toward deep, fundamental improvement is feeling the pain of failing and accepting the responsibility for it. Pain + Reflection = Progress Reality + Dreams + Determination = A Successful Punter OPINIONS ARE LIKE A**HOLES, EVERYONE HAS ONE While being open-minded is far more important than being bright or smart, not all opinions are equally valuable so don't treat them as such. Many are worthless or even harmful so it is not logical to treat them as equally valuable. For example, the views of people without any proven record of profitable tips or ratings are not equal to the views of people with great track records and experience. Just because the jockey, trainer, or TV/radio/print journalist gets a lot of media exposure doesn't mean that their selections make a profit. Still, all views should be considered in an open-minded way, but put in the proper context of experience and track record. Ask yourself whether they have earned the right for you to place any importance whatsoever in what they have to say. Opinions are easy to produce, so there is an abundance of bad ones around. DO THE HARD THINGS Force yourself to do the difficult things because the cost of not doing them is enormous. It's a fundamental law of nature that you have to do difficult things to gain strength and power. A bit like pushing yourself extra hard at the gym, after a while you make the connection between doing difficult things and the benefits you get from doing them and with time you come to look forward to doing these difficult things. This may be putting twice as much effort into analysing half as many races, shopping for the best available odds, keeping honest and detailed records, or learning exactly how to apply sectional times as part of your analysis. It's a fact that for most people the thing they avoid doing is the exact thing they should be doing. KNOW WHAT VALUE IS Most punters would agree that if you are not betting on the value runners you can't win long-term. By definition, unless you are getting odds that are greater than their true chance of winning, you can't possibly make a profit. You will back your share of winners, but will still be a long-term losing punter. But how do you know what value is if you don't have a set of rated prices? Do you just guess whether the $3 available about your top selection is good value, or whether it is well and truly under the odds? YOU WILL GET WHAT YOU DESERVE The results that you end up with will reflect how you handle everything to do with gambling. So take control of your betting life and hold yourself accountable. People who wish for a great result but are unwilling to do what it takes to get there, will fail. Getting more worked up and shouting louder at the TV screen or radio won't improve your winning strike-rate. When trying to understand and diagnose problems, it's important to avoid being a "Monday expert," That is, evaluating the merits of a past decision based on what you know now, versus what you could have reasonably known at the time of the decision. Do this by asking the question, "What should an intelligent punter have known in that situation?" SUMMARY So to summarise this article and once again paraphrase the Bridgewater handbook, if you are serious about being a winning horse racing or sports betting punter you must: - Determine the best questions - Find the right answers - Design and implement a plan - Understand maths and mindset - Do the hard things - Know what value is - Understand that you will get what you deserve
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