| By :
David Duffield
Fact or fiction: A progressive staking plan can turn a small level stakes loss into a healthy profit. The term "progressive" sounds fairly professional. But if they were called by the more appropriate term of "aggressive loss chasing plans" then they wouldn't sound quite so tempting. Progressive staking plans involve increasing your bet size following a loser or series of losers. This approach may seem OK on paper and may work in the short term, but at some stage you are absolutely certain to wipe out your betting bank. Most punters already bet too much of their bank on each bet and this problem is simply exacerbated by progressive betting. Remember the old probability question - if you have tossed 20 straight heads what is the chance of the next toss also being a head? It's 50% of course, no more and no less, so increasing your bets following a losing streak doesn't make any mathematical sense. Previous unrelated results (good or bad) have no material effect on the next result, yet you are increasing your bet size and risk. Betting against established mathematics and probability is a recipe for financial ruin. It's very important to remember the key role that strike-rate plays over any reasonable length of time.
Say for example you have around 40 bets a week and achieve a 30% winning strike-rate 98% of the time you will have between 6 and 18 winners for your 40 bets that week. In 68% of the weeks you will have between 9 and 15 winners. But it's also a cold hard mathematical fact that at some stage throughout the year you are 98% likely to encounter a losing streak of 14 or more. In fact you can expect 4 such losing streaks of 14 over a 12 month period.
And you're an even money chance (50%) of having a losing streak of 19. What kind of progressive plan can cope with those kinds of losing runs?
My advice to the vast majority of punters is to research money management in detail, eliminate progressive plans and before making a decision you should carefully consider: (1) Winning percentage - based on actual long-term records, not what you'd like to achieve in the future. (2) Losing streak - what is your longest run of outs or worst drawdown? When determining the size of your bank, consider doubling the worst run yet experienced. (3) Psychology - are you an aggressive risk-taker, or more conservative and risk-averse? (4) Google the term "gambler's ruin".
After carefully considering the above factors and choosing a suitable money management plan, you should then 'paper-trade' before going live with your hard-earned money. Many punters believe that a progressive staking plan is the magic ingredient to be successful. They are partially right because good money management principles are essential. But to expect a progressive plan to be the secret to punting riches is very naive and mathematically flawed. Promoters play on this naivet to tout expensive loss-chasing plans but if your system/method/tipster can't make a level stakes profit you will eventually go broke.
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