| By :
David Duffield
My last article showed quite clearly that Moonee Valley is a 'horses for courses' track and today I'm going to look at Rosehill and find out whether the same principle applies there. The home of the Golden Slipper has a track circumference of 2,048 metres and the 408 metre straight generally means that all horses get their chance wherever they are in the run. So how 'true' is the form there and what is the record of those horses that are in the market? Here are the Rosehill stats (based on NSW TAB prices) for the 700+ races from 2006 to date:
Favourite -7% Profit on Turnover
2nd Fave -14% POT
3rd Fave -15% POT
4th Fave +3% POT So -8% overall which is better than the -13% recorded across all tracks Australia-wide during this same time frame. While the performance of the 4th favourite stands out in the results above, this is likely to be a statistical anomaly because the 5th fave lost 24% on turnover and the 6th fave lost 13%. The statistics show that track experience at Rosehill is definitely an advantage. Horses that haven't started at the track previously lost 12% on turnover, whereas those that had already raced at Rosehill lost just 3%. Remember these figures are based only on NSW TAB dividends so using Best Tote or Betfair could put you into a profit-making position quite quickly. The results for the different track conditions don't reveal any definitive pattern:
Good -8%
Dead -9%
Slow +2%
Heavy -19%
(Only 91 races were held on a heavy track so I won't draw too much of a conclusion on such a small number). One other stat did stand out though and that is simply backing the favourite at Rosehill on a good track produced a 37% winning strike-rate for 5% profit on turnover. That's a pretty solid record from more than 400 qualifying races. There were no major differentials for the various Rosehill distances other than backing the first four in the market over the Rosehill 1100 made a small profit. But again it's important not to draw absolute conclusions from relatively small sample sizes. The best performing jockeys at Rosehill wouldn't surprise too many people: Blake Shinn, Darren Beadman, Glen Boss, Glyn Schofield, Hugh Bowman, Jeff Lloyd and Tim Clark. However the names on the worst performing Rosehill jockeys might: Corey Brown, Danny Beasley, Danny Nikolic, Jimmy Cassidy and Rod Quinn. The best performing Rosehill trainers include Chris Waller, David Payne, Bart Cummings, John O'shea and Joe Pride. The trainers whose horses are generally overbet and under the odds at Rosehill are Guy Walter, Gerald Ryan, John Hawkes, Kevin Moses and Peter Snowden Overall I think it's fair to say that just like Moonee Valley, the 'horses for courses' approach well and truly applies to Rosehill as well.
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